Idiot index
I = product cost ÷ raw-input cost. A high number means you are far from the material cost floor — there is room to improve. The denominator is derived from raw-material floors with quoted prices sealed, then reconciled, so the ratio is a real model-vs-reality gap. Each side carries a citation or a labelled estimate.
Leading-edge 3nm wafer vs. the raw silicon atoms in it
60,000×
high confidence
Numerator · TSMC 3nm patterned wafer ASP
$18,000
cite ↗ toms-3nm-wafer
Denominator · Raw silicon atoms (~128 g @ MG-Si price)
$0.3
cite ↗ mg-si-price
The headline gap: a finished leading-edge wafer is ~60,000× the cost of the silicon atoms in it. Value is in litho/process, not silicon.
Processed 3nm wafer vs. the blank substrate it started as
90×
high confidence
Numerator · TSMC 3nm patterned wafer ASP
$18,000
cite ↗ toms-3nm-wafer
Denominator · Blank 300 mm prime wafer
Fab processing adds ~90× the value of the blank wafer it consumes.
Semiconductor-grade polysilicon vs. metallurgical-grade silicon
31×
medium confidence
Numerator · Electronic-grade (11N) polysilicon
$70
est.
Denominator · Metallurgical-grade silicon (~99%)
$2.25
cite ↗ mg-si-price
Purification from 99% to eleven-nines adds ~30× value (and is energy-hungry — see Energetic Index).
Finished AI accelerator vs. the raw material atoms in it
6,000×
low confidence
Numerator · High-end accelerator street value
$30,000
est.
Denominator · Raw material atoms (Si + dopants + trace)
$5
est.
Scaffold-grade estimate end-to-end; the wafer-vs-atoms row above is the well-sourced one.