Analysis

The question DAG decomposed into Input Questions (atomic factual leaves), Analyses (synthesis nodes that combine inputs), and Side Chapters (constraint or orthogonal deep-dives).

Input Questions (Leaf)

q1-earth-launch-cost What is the projected cost per kg to LEO from Earth launch over 2026-2040, with realistic uncertainty bands?
0/6 done

0 sources
q2-lunar-ascent-cost What is the projected cost per kg from lunar surface to LEO over 2026-2040, broken out by chemical rocket vs mass driver delivery?
0/6 done

0 sources
q3-isru-feasibility Which orbital-infrastructure materials (structural Al/Fe/Si/Ti, glass, oxygen, propellants) are plausibly producible from lunar regolith without complex Earth imports, and at what TRL by 2040?
0/6 done

0 sources
q4-gear-ratio What capital-mass-to-product-mass ratio (Metzger's gear ratio) must lunar capital achieve for economic viability, and is this attainable with realistic ISRU technology?
6/6 done

1 source · 14 claims
q5-capital-buildup What upfront capex and what discrete engineering milestones are required to establish a lunar manufacturing base capable of net-positive export, and how compressible is each milestone under industrial-explosion or TAI-grade automation?
0/6 done

0 sources
q6-orbital-demand What is the projected demand for structural mass and propellant in LEO and cislunar space 2026-2040, split by use case (data centers, solar power, depots, deep-space missions)?
0/6 done

0 sources

Analyses

q8-synthesis-crossover Integrating Starship cost curve, lunar gear ratio, ISRU feasibility, capital buildup, and orbital demand: when (if ever) does lunar-sourced bulk mass beat Earth-launched mass for orbital infrastructure, and under what scenarios does the crossover materialise?
0/6 done

Side Chapters

Structural or orthogonal deep-dives surfaced during research. Could materially shift the bottom line but live outside the main DAG.

q7-mass-driver-feasibility What engineering and capital work remains before a lunar mass driver is operational, how compressible is each step under industrial-explosion or TAI-level automation, and how much does the root answer depend on its availability vs. chemical-rocket-only delivery?
0/6 done