Analysis

The question DAG decomposed into Input Questions (atomic factual leaves), Analyses (synthesis nodes that combine inputs), and Side Chapters (constraint or orthogonal deep-dives).

Question DAG click any node to jump to its leaf

graph TD
  classDef root fill:#fafaf7,stroke:#c4622d,stroke-width:2.5px,color:#1a1a1a,font-weight:bold;
  classDef leaf fill:#fafaf7,stroke:#4a4a4a,stroke-width:1px,color:#1a1a1a,font-weight:bold;
  classDef leafDone fill:#e8f3ee,stroke:#2d6a4f,stroke-width:1.5px,color:#1a1a1a,font-weight:bold;
  classDef leafInProg fill:#fef3e3,stroke:#d97706,stroke-width:1.5px,color:#1a1a1a,font-weight:bold;
  classDef synthesis fill:#f0efe9,stroke:#4a4a4a,stroke-width:1px,color:#1a1a1a,font-weight:bold;
  classDef constraint fill:#fafaf7,stroke:#9ca3af,stroke-width:1px,stroke-dasharray:4 3,color:#1a1a1a,font-weight:bold;
  root["Root question"]
  click root "/lunar-manufacturing/" "When does lunar surface manufacturing become cheaper than Earth launch for orbital infrastructure?"
  class root root;
  q1_earth_launch_cost["Earth launch cost (6/6)"]
  root --> q1_earth_launch_cost
  click q1_earth_launch_cost "/lunar-manufacturing/leaves/q1-earth-launch-cost/" "What is the projected cost per kg to LEO from Earth launch over 2026-2040, with realistic uncertainty bands?"
  class q1_earth_launch_cost leafDone;
  q2_lunar_ascent_cost["Lunar ascent cost (6/6)"]
  root --> q2_lunar_ascent_cost
  click q2_lunar_ascent_cost "/lunar-manufacturing/leaves/q2-lunar-ascent-cost/" "What is the projected cost per kg from lunar surface to LEO over 2026-2040, broken out by chemical rocket vs mass driver delivery?"
  class q2_lunar_ascent_cost leafDone;
  q3_isru_feasibility["ISRU feasibility (6/6)"]
  root --> q3_isru_feasibility
  click q3_isru_feasibility "/lunar-manufacturing/leaves/q3-isru-feasibility/" "Which orbital-infrastructure materials (structural Al/Fe/Si/Ti, glass, oxygen, propellants) are plausibly producible from lunar regolith without complex Earth imports, and at what TRL by 2040?"
  class q3_isru_feasibility leafDone;
  q4_gear_ratio["Gear ratio (6/6)"]
  root --> q4_gear_ratio
  click q4_gear_ratio "/lunar-manufacturing/leaves/q4-gear-ratio/" "What capital-mass-to-product-mass ratio (Metzger's gear ratio) must lunar capital achieve for economic viability, and is this attainable with realistic ISRU technology?"
  class q4_gear_ratio leafDone;
  q5_capital_buildup["Capital buildup (6/6)"]
  root --> q5_capital_buildup
  click q5_capital_buildup "/lunar-manufacturing/leaves/q5-capital-buildup/" "What upfront capex and what discrete engineering milestones are required to establish a lunar manufacturing base capable of net-positive export, and how compressible is each milestone under industrial"
  class q5_capital_buildup leafDone;
  q6_orbital_demand["Orbital demand (6/6)"]
  root --> q6_orbital_demand
  click q6_orbital_demand "/lunar-manufacturing/leaves/q6-orbital-demand/" "What is the projected demand for structural mass and propellant in LEO and cislunar space 2026-2040, split by use case (data centers, solar power, depots, deep-space missions)?"
  class q6_orbital_demand leafDone;
  q7_mass_driver_feasibility["Mass driver feasibility (6/6)"]
  root --> q7_mass_driver_feasibility
  click q7_mass_driver_feasibility "/lunar-manufacturing/leaves/q7-mass-driver-feasibility/" "What engineering and capital work remains before a lunar mass driver is operational, how compressible is each step under industrial-explosion or TAI-level automation, and how much does the root answer"
  class q7_mass_driver_feasibility constraint;
  q8_synthesis_crossover["Synthesis crossover (0/6)"]
  root --> q8_synthesis_crossover
  click q8_synthesis_crossover "/lunar-manufacturing/leaves/q8-synthesis-crossover/" "Integrating Starship cost curve, lunar gear ratio, ISRU feasibility, capital buildup, and orbital demand: when (if ever) does lunar-sourced bulk mass beat Earth-launched mass for orbital infrastructur"
  class q8_synthesis_crossover synthesis;

Input Questions (Leaf)

Analyses

q8-synthesis-crossover Integrating Starship cost curve, lunar gear ratio, ISRU feasibility, capital buildup, and orbital demand: when (if ever) does lunar-sourced bulk mass beat Earth-launched mass for orbital infrastructure, and under what scenarios does the crossover materialise?
answered

Under TAI-grade compression — and only there — on two independent legs: (1) cost: mass-driver+SEP $50/kg vs optimistic-late Starship $59/kg, with the cycle-life gap as binding engineering risk; (2) throughput necessity: TAI-C SDC demand 10× Earth-launch ceiling, lunar bulk mass architecturally necessary for ~50% of SDC mass budget. Under BAU neither leg holds; under stall demand fails. Synthesis at 03-synthesis/v1/.

Side Chapters

Structural or orthogonal deep-dives surfaced during research. Could materially shift the bottom line but live outside the main DAG.

q7-mass-driver-feasibility What engineering and capital work remains before a lunar mass driver is operational, how compressible is each step under industrial-explosion or TAI-level automation, and how much does the root answer depend on its availability vs. chemical-rocket-only delivery?
6/6 done

First-principles BAU capex $1,242B over 20-30 years (96% track + drive coils); industrial-explosion $127B / ~6 years; TAI-grade $13.3B / ~1.5 years (converges with q2's $10B assumption and NASA 1979 SP-428 inflated). Stall never reached. Cycle-life gap (10⁶-10⁹ shots required vs ~10³ demonstrated; Navy EMRG cancelled 2021) is the binding engineering risk independent of capital and TAI compression — requires materials-science breakthrough. q2's $50/kg mass-driver headline is TAI-conditional.