Integrating Starship cost curve, lunar gear ratio, ISRU feasibility, capital buildup, and orbital demand: when (if ever) does lunar-sourced bulk mass beat Earth-launched mass for orbital infrastructure, and under what scenarios does the crossover materialise?

q8-synthesis-crossover

Integrating Starship cost curve, lunar gear ratio, ISRU feasibility, capital buildup, and orbital demand: when (if ever) does lunar-sourced bulk mass beat Earth-launched mass for orbital infrastructure, and under what scenarios does the crossover materialise?

Under TAI-grade compression — and only there — on two independent legs: (1) cost: mass-driver+SEP $50/kg vs optimistic-late Starship $59/kg, with the cycle-life gap as binding engineering risk; (2) throughput necessity: TAI-C SDC demand 10× Earth-launch ceiling, lunar bulk mass architecturally necessary for ~50% of SDC mass budget. Under BAU neither leg holds; under stall demand fails. Synthesis at 03-synthesis/v1/.

Confidence: medium

Pass status

○ research ○ calc ○ reconcile ○ source-review ○ consistency ○ write

When does lunar surface manufacturing become cheaper than Earth launch for orbital infrastructure?

Integrating Starship cost curve, lunar gear ratio, ISRU feasibility, capital buildup, and orbital demand: when (if ever) does lunar-sourced bulk mass beat Earth-launched mass for orbital infrastructure, and under what scenarios does the crossover materialise?

Pass Status