When does lunar surface manufacturing become cheaper than Earth launch for orbital infrastructure?

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Orbital propellant depot — Wikipedia

Wikipedia contributors 2026 reference cited by: q6-orbital-demand
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orbital_propellant_depot

Extract

Abstract

Wikipedia overview of orbital propellant depots. Key reference data points used for orientation: NASA's 2011 Simple Depot concept stored ~30 t total propellant (5 t LH2 + 25.7 t LOX). SpaceX Starship tanker carries ~100 t propellant per LEO flight; Musk estimates 8 launches suffice to refill a Starship for interplanetary trajectory while NASA estimates 16 due to cryogenic boiloff. ULA ACES (proposed, unfunded) carries ~73 t. Former NASA admin Mike Griffin (2005): "at a conservatively low government price of $10,000 per kg in LEO, 250 tonnes of fuel for two missions per year is worth $2.5 billion." Tier E used for orientation; the Starship tanker and Mike Griffin figures are re-cited from primary sources elsewhere in q6's source set.

Key claims

  • not-saved-tier-E

Reviewer notes

Tier E orientation. The 30 t/depot, 100 t/Starship-tanker, and 8 vs 16 launches-per-refuel figures are heavily reused downstream; the primary sources (SpaceX Starship Wikipedia, Casey Handmer's blog) are the source-review-eligible references for these.