When does lunar surface manufacturing become cheaper than Earth launch for orbital infrastructure?

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SpaceX Mars colonization program — Wikipedia

Wikipedia contributors 2026 reference cited by: q6-orbital-demand
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Mars_colonization_program

Extract

Abstract

Wikipedia overview of SpaceX's Mars colonization program. Reference data points: program targets 1,000 Starships per Mars launch window (every 26 months) at full scale; Musk's million-ton target requires "thousands of Starship launches." Launch cadence (May 2025 presentation): 5 ships in 2026/27 window; ~20 missions in 2028/29 window (75 t each); 100 missions in 2030/31 window (150 t each); 500 missions in 2033 window (300 t each). Cargo-to-Mars capacity per Starship: 100-150 t reusable initial; up to 300 t per Block 4/expended. 2024 Nature feasibility study (cited) challenges the architecture on Δv grounds. Tier E orientation; the Musk million-ton claim is re-attributed to a tier B public-figure statement.

Key claims

  • not-saved-tier-E

Reviewer notes

Tier E orientation. The Mars architecture mass cadence (20 / 100 / 500 missions per window, 75-300 t cargo each) is the most quoteable estimate of Mars launch mass demand in 2028-2035, sourced ultimately to Musk's May 2025 presentation. The million-ton claim becomes a tier B public-figure quote in the Musk-Mars-1m-tons source entry.