When does lunar surface manufacturing become cheaper than Earth launch for orbital infrastructure?

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On-Orbit Propellant Depot Market Report 2026 (industry summary)

Research and Markets 2026 report cited by: q6-orbital-demand
https://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/6177238/on-orbit-propellant-depot-market-report

Source review

Source Review: Research and Markets — On-Orbit Propellant Depot Market 2026

Verdict: Consistent Confidence: low-medium

Industry-research summary. The ~$4,000/kg propellant-at-depot estimate matches q2-lunar-ascent-cost's reconciled figure of $4,162/kg derivation. Multi-billion 2030 market sizing aligns with q6.c5 BAU depot demand scale. Low-confidence as a stand-alone source; valued as trade-press corroboration of academic figures.

Extract

Abstract

Industry-research overview of the orbital propellant depot market. Identifies near-term demand drivers (Artemis-era lunar mission refueling, commercial GEO servicing, deep-space mission refueling). Per q4 reconcile, trade-press estimate $4,000/kg propellant-at-depot is consistent with Metzger 2023 and Kornuta 2019 baseline assumptions. Market sizing projects multi-billion-dollar 2030 demand based on Artemis cadence and commercial deep-space programs. Industry-research summary, low-resolution for technical numbers but useful for trade-press validation of the academic demand projections.

Key claims

  • propellant-at-depot-cost: ~$4,000/kg trade-press estimate for propellant at depot (matches q2 reconcile $4,162/kg derivation).
  • market-2030-multibillion: Multi-billion dollar 2030 market size projection.

Reviewer notes

Tier D: industry-research summary. Useful for trade-press corroboration of academic figures but low resolution. q6 should treat as scalar consistency check on the tier-S sources rather than primary evidence.