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When does lunar surface manufacturing become cheaper than Earth launch for orbital infrastructure?

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ida-2024-demand-drivers

Demand Drivers of the Lunar and Cislunar Economy

IDA Science and Technology Policy Institute (STPI) team 2024 report cited by: q5-capital-buildup
https://www.ida.org/-/media/feature/publications/d/de/demand-drivers-of-the-lunar-and-cislunar-economy/d-13219.pdf

Source review

Source Review: IDA 2024 — Demand Drivers of the Lunar and Cislunar Economy

Overall verdict: mixed Two-sentence summary: IDA STPI FFRDC document on demand-driver framework. PDF body could not be parsed; the cited inclusion in q5 is tier-completeness rather than substantive contribution to capex analysis.

Key claims

  • "IDA STPI is the canonical FFRDC-credentialed source for US government lunar-economy analysis" — Consistent (institutional credentialing).
  • "The document addresses which use cases generate lunar/cislunar revenue and on what schedule" — Merits investigation (re-fetch with better PDF tooling).

Cross-reference

  • PDF body inaccessible; review is title-level only.
  • For q5 write pass: this source is a placeholder — should be re-fetched with better PDF tooling before being cited in any synthesis claim.
  • Codex anti-hallucination check: review explicitly flags the PDF body as not-fetched; no specific quotes attributed beyond title.

Extract

Abstract

IDA STPI document D-13219 on demand drivers of the lunar and cislunar economy, prepared under contract to government sponsors. Full body could not be parsed (binary PDF stream); title, document number and venue confirmed via IDA index page. The IDA STPI series is a recurring reference set for US government lunar-policy analysis; the demand-drivers framing addresses which use cases (science, defense, commercial services, manufacturing) plausibly generate revenue and over what time horizon. Treated as Tier A based on agency-adjacent credentialing.

Key claims

  • ida-stpi-credentialed: "IDA STPI is the canonical FFRDC-credentialed source for US government lunar-economy analysis"
  • focus-on-demand-not-supply: "The document addresses which use cases generate lunar/cislunar revenue and on what schedule" (titular)

Reviewer notes

Could not parse PDF body in this run (binary encoding). Re-fetch with better PDF tooling would yield specific projected revenue tracks, the government-vs-commercial revenue split, and likely a calendar-anchored milestone projection that violates anti-pattern #11 and should be re-framed by q5. Cited here for tier-completeness — the IDA STPI series is part of the canonical agency-adjacent reference set, and absence would be a tier-S/A omission. Best to expand-or-replace this entry once full text is parseable.