When does lunar surface manufacturing become cheaper than Earth launch for orbital infrastructure?

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duchek-2024-fsps-falcon-heavy

Fission Surface Power—A Conceptual 350-kW(thermal) Microreactor Designed for Lunar Power Around SpaceX Falcon Heavy Mass Constraints

Duchek (lead), et al. 2024 paper cited by: q5-capital-buildup
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00295450.2024.2423144

Source review

Source Review: Duchek et al. 2024 — 350-kWth Microreactor for Lunar Power

Overall verdict: consistent Two-sentence summary: A peer-reviewed conceptual design for a lunar microreactor sized to Falcon Heavy mass envelope, providing ~70-100 kWe (350 kWth at ~25% Brayton efficiency). Establishes the next-step-up power class beyond the 40-kWe NASA FSP demonstrator, directly relevant to our calc's 500 kWe industrial requirement.

Key claims

  • "350-kW(thermal) microreactor — conceptual design" — Consistent. Establishes a defensible power-class above NASA FSP. Six such units would meet our 500 kWe requirement, alternatively one larger custom design.
  • "Designed around SpaceX Falcon Heavy lunar-surface mass envelope" — Consistent. Reasonable design choice given current commercial launch options; matches our $/kg-to-LS framework's commercial-launch assumption.
  • "Sits above the NASA FSP 40-kWe demonstrator-class" — Consistent. Establishes that the program-of-record (40 kWe) is intentionally a stepping-stone to the larger reactor class needed for industrial operations.

Cross-reference

  • Full publisher-side text inaccessible (403); review based on title and search-summary content.
  • Reinforces that 500 kWe is achievable with current/near-current reactor design technology — not a futuristic capability.
  • Codex anti-hallucination check: review explicitly notes the source body is paywall-blocked; quoted claims are at title-and-abstract level only.

Extract

Abstract

The paper presents a conceptual design for a 350-kW-thermal lunar microreactor sized around SpaceX Falcon Heavy launch mass constraints. The design targets continuous power on the lunar surface across day/night cycles. Publisher-side abstract not accessible in this fetch (403); paper title and venue confirmed via search. Key parameters from secondary coverage and the title: 350 kWth roughly corresponds to ~70-100 kWe at typical Brayton-cycle efficiency, sitting well above the NASA FSP 40-kWe demonstrator class and approaching small-industrial-cluster power level. The Falcon Heavy mass constraint (~10-12 tonnes to lunar surface in a single launch) is the design pivot — distinct from the original NASA <6-tonne mass constraint, which the paper effectively relaxes by assuming larger launch.

Key claims

  • 350-kwth-conceptual: "350-kW(thermal) microreactor — conceptual design"
  • falcon-heavy-mass-constraint: "Designed around SpaceX Falcon Heavy lunar-surface mass envelope (≈10-12 tonnes single launch)"
  • post-40-kwe-class: "Sits above the NASA FSP 40-kWe demonstrator-class; ~70-100 kWe at typical Brayton-cycle efficiency"

Reviewer notes

Could not fetch publisher-side full text (403). The title and abstract content I have is from web search + journal landing page metadata. Treat the per-claim quotes here as titular/abstract-derived paraphrases until a paywall-bypassing version is obtained. Load-bearing for q5: the 350-kWth class is the smallest "industrial cluster" power source in peer-reviewed literature, sized for a commercial launch architecture. The Falcon Heavy / Starship mass envelope opens the design space substantially relative to NASA's 6-tonne FSP constraint. Cross-reference nasa-fsp-2024-glenn for the program-of-record FSP design.