Abstract
Terraform Industries' master plan describes commercial production of synthetic methane via direct air capture of CO₂ combined with electrolytic hydrogen (Sabatier reaction → CH₄). Their proprietary DAC concentrates CO₂ for less than $250/t; green hydrogen for less than $2.50/kg-H₂. A 1 MW module costs ~$100k near-term, projected ~$30k/MW at scale, producing roughly 55,000 kcf of methane over 25 years. Near-term synthetic methane production cost is $28-30/MMBtu; long-term projection $4-5/MMBtu. The company achieved first delivery of pipeline-grade synthetic natural gas to two utility partners in April 2024 and planned commercial market entry in 2026. Implication for q1: methane supply is not fundamentally constrained — natural-gas reserves are large, and synthetic methane is technologically demonstrated and economic at projected scale. Methane scaling is willingness-to-build, not physics.
Key claims
- terraform-dac-cost: DAC concentrates atmospheric CO₂ for <$250/t.
- terraform-h2-cost: green hydrogen <$2.50/kg-H₂.
- terraform-methane-long-term-cost: $4-5/MMBtu projected at scale (from $28-30/MMBtu near-term).
- terraform-first-delivery: April 2024 — first pipeline-grade synthetic NG delivered to utility partners.
- terraform-commercial-entry: market entry planned for 2026.
- methane-feedstock-unlimited: atmospheric CO₂ and H₂ (electrolysed water) are essentially unlimited inputs.
Reviewer notes
Tier C, expert blog from a credentialed engineer founder. The cost figures are forward-looking but the technological demonstration (first commercial delivery April 2024) is real. For q1's reframing: methane is not fundamentally binding — even if natural gas reserves were depleted, synthetic methane from electricity + air + water is demonstrated and the cost curve is plausibly competitive. The argument that "methane supply will eventually constrain rocket throughput" is wrong; methane scales with electricity supply and capital, both willingness-to-scale.