Abstract
Kukreja et al. (2025, MIT/GMU preprint) conducted a life-cycle assessment of GHG emissions for 10 launch vehicles and 15 megaconstellation deployments, developing the open-source ORACLE repository. The headline finding: megaconstellations launched since 2019 will account for ~42% of the total climate impact of the space sector by decade-end (2030). Production of launch vehicles and propellant combustion during launches contribute 72.6% of life-cycle emissions. Reusable rockets show 95.4% lower production emissions than non-reusable alternatives. Useful for q2 as a comprehensive LCA framework but doesn't model launch-rate thresholds for atmospheric chemistry impact.
Key claims
- megaconstellation-2030-share: ~42% of space sector climate impact by decade-end attributable to LEO megaconstellations launched 2019-2030.
- production-plus-combustion-share: 72.6% of life-cycle emissions from launch vehicle production + propellant combustion during launch.
- reusability-95-percent-reduction: Falcon-9/Starship-class reusable vehicles show 95.4% lower production emissions vs expendable.
- oracle-tool: open-source LCA repository for space-infrastructure emissions modeling.
Reviewer notes
Tier A, MIT/GMU preprint. Complements Ryan 2022 by providing the lifecycle-emissions framework rather than per-kg-propellant emission factors. For q2 the reusability finding matters: at high cadence, the per-launch carbon footprint is dominated by combustion (propellant scope-1), not by vehicle manufacturing, in the reusable architecture. This decouples q2's atmospheric ceiling from vehicle manufacturing constraints (which are q1's territory). The 42% projection assumes ~2030 megaconstellation cadences (~10,000 satellites/year) — well below the Mt-Gt-Tt/yr LEO scales relevant for the parent report.